Mason-Dixon (10/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jim Martin (D): 39
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45
Allen Buckley: 5
Undecided: 11
(MoE: 4%)
Sneaky, sneaky. NBC commissioned this poll from Mason-Dixon and announced the results on Meet the Press – but they apparently haven’t really pushed it out online (hence the link to Pollster above). This is the first poll in some time showing daylight between the two candidates, and it also has a relatively high number of undecideds. The good news here is that Chambliss is still under 50 and if he doesn’t get too lucky with the undecideds, we’ll be headed to a runoff.
Mason-Dixon has definitely been leaning right this year. Excluding this finding, look at the last 11 polls of this race:
46-44 Chambliss (SUSA, 9/28-9/29)
45-44 Chambliss (R2K, 9/29-10/01)
47-44 Chambliss (Strategic Vision, 10/5-10/7)
50-44 Chambliss (Rasmussen, 10/7)
45-45 Tie (Insider Advantage, 10/9)
46-43 Chambliss (SUSA, 10/11-10/12)
47-45 Chambliss (R2K, 10/14-10/15)
46-44 Chambliss (Strategic Vision, 10/20-10/22)
47-45 Chambliss (Rasmussen, 10/22)
44-42 Chambliss (Insider Advantage, 10/23)
46-44 Chambliss (Insider Advantage, 10/27)
Altogether, the average is almost exactly 46-44. Mason-Dixon here really undervalues Martin’s support, so I don’t buy it. Though we may well be in runoff territory.
Nate had a brief post this morning about how in most of these polls there’s a high percentage of undecideds among African-Americans and this could point to Martin having 2-3 points more than he is in the polls.
Its impossible to know how this race will transpire because we don’t know what African-American turnout will be. In 2004, it was 25% and most of the polls have it between 25-27%. But early voting has it at 35%, now it obviously won’t stay that high, but if it’s at 30-31% I think Martin has to be considered the favorite.